$F, $NUE, $CLF, @larryvc, and learning lessons

I’ve had a bad run with Ford’s in my life. I owned a (used) very nice F150 Lariat which I bought from my then-boss. Leather. Nicest vehicle I had ever owned. The engine blew at 104k miles. Not ideal. My wife, a few years later, had a Taurus (grey/silver — how many of these were there??) who’s transmission went up right below 90k miles. WHAT.

I don’t buy Ford’s anymore.

A lot of people do. Here in the Midwest, a F series pickup is about every fifth or sixth car on the road.

But, last year, I bought some options. Sep 20, to be exact on $F. Though I don’t love the cars, I, as they stay, like the stock. The F series is unstoppable. Tomorrow the options turn a year old, which means this week I can sell them for long term instead of short term gains. They’ve gone up 700%. I will make enough on them to buy another F150 (I won’t though).

I read something from Larry Cheng. I don’t know anything about Larry other than his Twitter bio says he’s a Christian (interesting — in VC!?) — I follow him because he’s on GameStop’s board. He tweets some good stuff — today he said “At the end of the day, our perspective on investments is often far more influenced by our personal psychology than our analytical rigor.”

After two years of trading full time (I mean, let’s be honest — I have plenty of free time), that statement’s been jumping around in my brain all day.

The lesson I’ve learned — and I think Larry’s right — is that mindset is probably more important than math. My current P&L for the years stands at $412k. I’m managing $430k (I’ve sold a lot into cash so I don’t have that in my “management” bucket anymore)…. but my returns this year are still well over 100%. Unfortunately, the steelpocalypse that happened wrecked my $CLF and $NUE positions not even two months ago. I was up to $558k profit at one point.

So, I’m selling the Ford the end of this week. (I still have spreads that could be worth 100k by 2023 if the stock keeps running). I’m going back to the old adage of selling too soon. I had $NUE ’22 positions DEEEP in the money (17x profit) that I KNEW I should have sold at the top. I still made GREAT money, but as they say…. nobody ever goes broke taking profit. (I flipped those for cash and more calls).

Earnings are this week for $CLF and $NUE. Steel hands.

And $GME should really ask me to be on the board. I’ll do it for free. I’m the target audience. A 40-year old male… but I don’t buy the Funko’s or kids toys or any of the bric-a-brac. I could help them reach…. people like me.